A study scheduled for the September 2026 issue of the Journal of Public Economics estimates that firearm-related background checks in Oregon jumped 157 percent immediately after voters approved Measure 114 in November 2022. The four researchers used the measure's narrow passage as a natural experiment, comparing Oregon with a weighted group of other states. Their central result concerns demand before a law takes effect: the buying response arrived while the permit and magazine provisions were still blocked, not after implementation.
The study by Katie Bollman, Benjamin Hansen, Edward A. Rubin, and Garrett O. Stanford treats background checks as a proxy for lawful firearm demand, not a count of guns or unique purchasers. One check may cover more than one firearm, and a person may undergo multiple checks. The authors nevertheless found a clear timing pattern. Checks rose 13.9 percent in October 2022 as the referendum approached, then increased by an estimated 930 per 100,000 residents in November and December, 157 percent above Oregon's baseline monthly rate.
The researchers estimate that Measure 114 generated about 78,000 additional firearm-related checks between the election and the court order that stopped implementation. That total was equivalent to checks involving roughly 1.9 percent of Oregon's population during the two-month period, though it should not be read as 78,000 confirmed firearm sales. Monthly demand returned near its earlier level after the December 2022 judicial intervention, giving the researchers a way to separate an immediate rush from purchases merely shifted forward by a few months.
The analysis combines monthly FBI National Instant Criminal Background Check System records with daily, county-level Oregon State Police data covering March 2018 through March 2024. Oregon is a point-of-contact state, so dealers route checks through OSP. The researchers used OSP totals for Oregon because pending checks were sometimes resubmitted to NICS after 24 hours during the surge, creating duplicates in the federal data that did not appear in the state system. They found no comparable split during the earlier COVID-era buying spike.
By March 2024, the model still showed a cumulative increase of about 1,480 checks per 100,000 Oregonians, or approximately 63,000 excess checks. About 70 percent of the initial cumulative increase therefore remained 18 months after the election. The study found some evidence that later demand softened as earlier purchases were pulled forward, but the authors estimated that this timing shift explained less than 20 percent of the induced demand during the final 12 months observed. Their confidence interval did not rule out a smaller harvesting effect.
The response also varied geographically. Six counties that supported Measure 114 contained 46 percent of the state's population, while 30 counties opposed it. Counties voting against the measure accounted for 70 percent of the per-capita cumulative effect, according to the study. Their estimated peak was about 1,680 additional monthly checks per 100,000 residents, roughly 50 percent higher than in supporting counties. Even so, the authors found that counties on both sides of the vote contributed substantially to the statewide increase.
The restrictions buyers anticipated
Measure 114 passed with 50.7 percent of the vote. Its text created a permit-to-purchase system administered by a police chief or county sheriff, required fingerprints, a photograph, a background check, and proof of safety training, and generally capped an initial fee at $65. Permits would be valid for five years. The measure also restricted magazines capable of accepting more than 10 rounds, subject to specified exceptions and defenses. Those provisions had not been substantively implemented during the study's observation period.
Oregon has since changed the timetable. The enrolled text and official history of House Bill 4145 show that it became Chapter 120 and moved the operative date for Measure 114's firearm-transfer and magazine provisions to January 1, 2028. That delay means the paper does not estimate how demand will behave when the permit system actually begins, whether another anticipatory surge will occur, or how implementation will affect purchases afterward. It measures the response to the 2022 vote and ensuing uncertainty through March 2024.
The September journal publication is the next dated milestone for the research. For Oregon owners and dealers, January 1, 2028 is the current statutory milestone, but litigation or later legislation could alter the practical schedule. The study supplies a detailed estimate of the first buying wave; it does not establish how many firearms changed hands, who retained them, or the eventual effect of an operating permit-to-purchase system.
About the Author
Nick Sawinyh - Nick Sawinyh is a father, husband, hobby farmer, and gun enthusiast from Kentucky. He founded GunsNation and writes most of what appears on this blog.
